2026 Candidates Tournament
8-player double round-robinFIDE
The Candidates Tournament determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship, who will face D. Gukesh.
Who will challenge Gukesh for the crown? We ran over one million Monte Carlo simulations of the Candidates Tournament to find out. Use the Scenario Builder to set game outcomes and see how the probabilities shift in real time.
Simulation Results
Scenario Builder
Select game outcomes to simulate custom scenarios
Round 1 — Completed
Sindarov1-0Esipenko
Bluebaum½-½Wei
Praggnanandhaa R1-0Giri
Caruana1-0Nakamura
Round 2 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Nakamura
Giri½-½Caruana
Wei½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Sindarov½-½Bluebaum
Round 3 — Completed
Bluebaum½-½Esipenko
Praggnanandhaa R0-1Sindarov
Caruana1-0Wei
Nakamura½-½Giri
Round 4 — Completed
Esipenko0-1Giri
Wei½-½Nakamura
Sindarov1-0Caruana
Bluebaum½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Round 5 — Completed
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Esipenko
Caruana1-0Bluebaum
Nakamura0-1Sindarov
Giri½-½Wei
Round 6 — Completed
Caruana½-½Esipenko
Nakamura½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Giri½-½Bluebaum
Wei0-1Sindarov
Round 7 — Completed
Esipenko0-1Wei
Sindarov½-½Giri
Bluebaum½-½Nakamura
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Caruana
Round 8 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Sindarov
Wei½-½Bluebaum
Giri1-0Praggnanandhaa R
Nakamura1-0Caruana
Round 9 — Completed
Nakamura½-½Esipenko
Caruana0-1Giri
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Wei
Bluebaum½-½Sindarov
Round 10 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Bluebaum
Sindarov1-0Praggnanandhaa R
Wei½-½Caruana
Giri½-½Nakamura
Round 11 — Completed
Giri½-½Esipenko
Nakamura½-½Wei
Caruana½-½Sindarov
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Bluebaum
Round 12 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Bluebaum½-½Caruana
Sindarov½-½Nakamura
Wei½-½Giri
Round 13 — Completed
Wei1-0Esipenko
Giri½-½Sindarov
Nakamura½-½Bluebaum
Caruana½-½Praggnanandhaa R
How it works
Monte Carlo Sims
Over 1M simulations using Elo, color advantage, and draw rates.
Scenario Explorer
Lock in results and explore “what if” scenarios.
Live Tracking
Actual results baked in automatically as rounds complete.
For a deeper dive, check out How Our Chess Tournament Predictions Work on the blog.